I sometimes miss events, particularly cricket, because i don't know the matches are on, or they start in the middle of the night. What resources do you use to form your monthly trading calendar?
The ICC website and ESPNcricinfo is the ultimate resource for live scoring and calender schedules. Betfair is also good for finding out what games are on in the immediate future!
I’d like your interpretation of value please and why it's so important?
I think I understand why pros have to look for and take value etc.
I’m here to be corrected, but from my perspective as a novice, I haven't considered value so important to my trading. I just aim to be right more than I am wrong.
Hi Matt, I hope you're well. Thanks for your question.
Value is the most important consideration if you are to be profitable long term. It determines whether or not you enter a trade. Assuming fixed staking, you can be right 9/10 backing 1.05 priced winners yet still be at a loss.
Being right more often than you're wrong does not translate to profitability. If you corrrectly understand value, you can be correct less than 50% of the time and still make money.
Value essentially means having faith that the chance of an event occurring is more likely than the odds on offer. For short term trading on say horse racing, I use technical analysis to find out support and resistance points and spot over reactions that are due a correction.
As for in play trading, I usually use the past as reference. For example, if a horse that's ran well at a certain weight over a certain course and distance has not been given added weight on the day racing at a similar course and distance, I would potentially shortlist that horse as a potential back 2 lay.
Given my in play knowledge at certain tracks, if I know that a horse should jump well during a certain segment of the course in order to feature in the finish and it hasn't, I would look to lay that horse before the market catches wind.
In cricket, I would know how many times a score has been chased on a certain pitch under certain conditions. The price on offer would therefore have to be weighed up against the likelihood of it happening which further depends on the current batting conditions and team line up in order to make a decision.
In boxing, the odds are prone to over reactions due to extra ordinary public interest or 'casuals' who like to bet on their favourite fighters. I'm therefore very keen to bet against short price favourites when they face formidable opposition who's resumes haven't been properly considered. The weight class & manner of victories and defeats also play a huge part in my decision making process since they often tell a far better picture than a face value look at a resume.
Data analysis makes the process a science and trusting your eye makes it an art. I prefer trusting my eye but often use data to back up what I see. Ultimately, the past serves as a reference point for what you should expect to make in a given scenario.
I sometimes miss events, particularly cricket, because i don't know the matches are on, or they start in the middle of the night. What resources do you use to form your monthly trading calendar?
The ICC website and ESPNcricinfo is the ultimate resource for live scoring and calender schedules. Betfair is also good for finding out what games are on in the immediate future!
Cheers for the reply, man! Enjoy your Sunday. 🙂
Hello AMT,
I’d like your interpretation of value please and why it's so important?
I think I understand why pros have to look for and take value etc.
I’m here to be corrected, but from my perspective as a novice, I haven't considered value so important to my trading. I just aim to be right more than I am wrong.
Cheers, Matt.
Hi Matt, I hope you're well. Thanks for your question.
Value is the most important consideration if you are to be profitable long term. It determines whether or not you enter a trade. Assuming fixed staking, you can be right 9/10 backing 1.05 priced winners yet still be at a loss.
Being right more often than you're wrong does not translate to profitability. If you corrrectly understand value, you can be correct less than 50% of the time and still make money.
Value essentially means having faith that the chance of an event occurring is more likely than the odds on offer. For short term trading on say horse racing, I use technical analysis to find out support and resistance points and spot over reactions that are due a correction.
As for in play trading, I usually use the past as reference. For example, if a horse that's ran well at a certain weight over a certain course and distance has not been given added weight on the day racing at a similar course and distance, I would potentially shortlist that horse as a potential back 2 lay.
Given my in play knowledge at certain tracks, if I know that a horse should jump well during a certain segment of the course in order to feature in the finish and it hasn't, I would look to lay that horse before the market catches wind.
In cricket, I would know how many times a score has been chased on a certain pitch under certain conditions. The price on offer would therefore have to be weighed up against the likelihood of it happening which further depends on the current batting conditions and team line up in order to make a decision.
In boxing, the odds are prone to over reactions due to extra ordinary public interest or 'casuals' who like to bet on their favourite fighters. I'm therefore very keen to bet against short price favourites when they face formidable opposition who's resumes haven't been properly considered. The weight class & manner of victories and defeats also play a huge part in my decision making process since they often tell a far better picture than a face value look at a resume.
Data analysis makes the process a science and trusting your eye makes it an art. I prefer trusting my eye but often use data to back up what I see. Ultimately, the past serves as a reference point for what you should expect to make in a given scenario.
I hope that answer helps!
Very elaborative as ever! Thank you! Snapshots there of what I’ll be needing to change then!
Much appreciated