Week in review

Even after years playing this game, you can still surprise yourself!

Good evening value subscriber

It feels like I’ve worked 80 hours this week with 3 test matches, Cheltenham racing and the UFC.

Plenty of volatility, topsy turvy books and a rollercoaster of emotions before finally exiting the labyrinth on the right side with a healthy dose of greens:

I make thousands, weekly on the exchange so the result was nothing new to me. But I didn’t expect it. Usually I can forecast to a good degree of accuracy what I can reasonably project (not expect!) to make, but this week was a real surprise because the cricket was so damn unpredictable: all 3 underdogs won in each respective game!

New Zealand smashed India away from home to go 2-0 up and claim an away series victory in India for the 1st time in their history and break India’s 18 consecutive series home win streak in the process. Mitchell Santner ran riot with the ball taking 7 wickets in the first innings and 5 in the next. For a country that curates wickets that assist home grown spinners, India looked toothless with the ball and bat yet remarkably the market did not budge: despite losing the toss and still trailing by over a 100 runs after the 2nd innings…India were still favourite! The home team bias is extra pronounced in India and it was on display in it’s full glory this week. I hammered the New Zealand price on day 3 and the rest is history.

Pakistan on the other hand have finally figured out that road pitches are not going to to turn Punjab into the fortress it once was under Mughal rule! Pakistan have proven time and time again that they do not have the mettle to bat long periods and they do not have the bowling prowess to get anything out of a flat wicket. The 1st match of the 3 match series in Multan saw Pakistan outhustled by an English team that isn’t accustomed to batting in the searing heat. It was an utterly embarrassment results in a game that had a draw written all over it. It’s taken 4 draws and 7 home losses to prompt them to finally change course and wear out the pitches in order to aid spin. They even took the unprecedented decision of dropping their talisman Babar Azam but desperate situations call for desperate measures and this bold change in tactics proved to work wonders for Pakistan as they dismantled England in the following to games to win the series 2-1 and secure their fist home series win in 3 years.

The final game this week was punctuated by a typical top and middle order collapse from the Pakistani batters which forced me to close my trade for a rare loss before an extra ordinary rally from their lower order. Sods law! Sajid Javid and Noman Ali spun a web to bamboozle the English batting unit and claim the series in style.

As for Bangladesh, the less said the better. A truly chaotic batting unit that isn’t to be trusted. Whilst I wasn’t leaning to either side despite the favourable home conditions for Bangla, I secured a lovely green laying the draw.

Only 1 bet on the racing this week before finishing up with a blockbuster fight card at UFC 308. In my premium letter I advised backing Khamzat Chimaev and Ilia Topuria for the win which they both secured in style. My only error in this weekends picks was in the method of victory market: despite accurately forecasting Khamzat’s explosive start and Whittaker’s susceptability to an early knockout, I erroneously advised backing the fight to go the distance, a trade which only should have been entered after round 2.

As for the Topuria- Holloway fight preview, I rightly acknowledged how Holloways cut back to featherweight would effect his performance and coming up against a fresh and explosive boxer like Topuria, it was probably a matter of time before somebody knocked out the seemingly indestructible chin of Max Holloway.

Both fancy bets cancelled out the fight odds profits but that doesn’t take away from a well traded but tricky week. It feels like I worked 80 hours. It was hard and there’s not a lot of profit to show for it but I would’ve been happy with far less given the circumstances so a mixed bag of emotions! Such is the case with a line of work that offers no guarantees and regular curve balls.

Some weeks I’ll work 2 days and make thousands. Some weeks I’ll work day and night for nothing. One day you’re on top of the world, another day you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Speak soon.

AT

*note: will be hosting a Q&A for premium subscribers end of this month (Thursday -31st) a chance to ask me anything traded related to which I’ll respond to all. I look forward to hearing you guys thoughts!