The most dynamic market on Betfair

The key to profitable trading is finding markets with the least enemies. Let's explore.

Back when I started Betfair trading many years ago, the only content creators in this space where horse racing traders. Since it was the only sport where I could learn from others and it offered the chance to make a daily living, naturally I went all in to learning the mechanics of it.

As things evolved with time, better traders, shrewd punters and bots made it harder to make a profit. Couple that with the destructive affordability checks and racing liquidity is down to it’s bare bones.

As a consequence, the margin for error has tightened dramatically. Since you can no longer get filled at the desired price, a wrong entry means you’ll have to take bigger losses. When you find a good entry, you can not get matched for the desire stakes.

There are less players in the market. You are now up against the best. In play racing is now a gun fight with the best traders competing against each other. Kill or be killed. Racing will now be a slow bleed on the intermediate level traders account. Whilst you can still make money, the opportunities are scarce. You must pick your spots carefully. Only the best can hope to make a daily income from the sport.

In trading, you want to attack markets with the least enemies possible. It is the same as poker. Can you imagine Phil Ivey, Daniel Negreanu, Doyle Brunson going head to head every week? Whilst beating fellow pros may provide a short ego boost, money would change hands relatively infrequently. Poker pros want to target the weakest tables to make the easiest money.

Whilst no money is easy, you want to target markets where there is a clear offset between your skills and the rest.

Cricket trading solves this

I know I’ve mentioned this many times now and without meaning to sound fanatical, I will take every opportunity to remind you that you are not obliged to follow everyone else. Whilst following and watching other traders can provide inspiration as to what’s possible, you can not hope to directly imitate someone else’s results. Beginners always need a coat tail to hang on to, but to truly fulfil your potential, you must carve out your own path.

The likes of Adam Heathcote, Caan and Peter Webb were my inspiration when starting out. Despite my dedication and application to pre race trading, I was not able to emulate their results.

The likes of Mark Iverson and a few other private mentors where my inspiration in cricket trading, but again, I was not able to emulate their T20 results.

BUT IT DIDN’T MATTER.

Because I had put in the countless hours and traded 1000’s of markets, I did manage to spot patterns that were more obvious to me than the ones my mentors and idols were following. Initially I was hesitant to veer off on my own path so I shelved my plans and continued to follow other methodologies religiously.

To my detriment, my profits stalled and even stagnated in some areas. But this was a key part of the learning process since I learned an important lesson: learning from somebody is a NECESSARY pre requisite. With time as your capabilities and experiences mature, only then are you ready to put your own slant on things.

It wasn’t until I had full trust in my ability and the discipline to follow a plan that my profits truly aligned with my capabilities. It is impossible to mimic somebody else’s work: we all have different risk appetites, time horizons, bank rolls and goals. Your personality, abilities and goals are the signature on your work. Hence why they are not repeatable.

It wasn’t until I fully appreciated the depth, breadth and evolutionary changes in markets that I could fully calibrate my profits with my goals.

The countless hours, markets and failures resulted in a hybrid schedule consisting of cricket and racing: My race trading is an in-play, race course focused, minimally data driven methodology.

My cricket trading is short term focused, combining scalping within small time frames to volatile, batting focused back to lays.

There is a 100 ways to skin a cat. Every body has a different opinion, at a different time and everyone is willing to put up a different stake. The cricket markets cater to all these needs. It is the most liquid sport on Betfair. Bar none.

Cricket is happening everywhere, all the time, from the USA-Carribean, to Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. As the sport grows, so too does the amount of t20 franchises, often being played simultaneously around the world at the same time. The best leagues like the IPL routinely see around £100 million matched per game. The good leagues have liquidity in the 10s of millions but even the most obscure and often untelevised games (including womens) has liquidity in the multiple millions!

If you enjoy the fast paced, high octane action, you have t20 to look forward to. If you enjoy the slow, unravelling of a game, you have the option to trade test matches. If you like a hybrid of the two you have ODI’s. 3 formats with liquidity running into the millions.

Thanks to the white label exchanges, asian money floods this sport with billions of pounds every year. Even the most obscure games have a higher turnover than the most televised football leagues. Some stakes are so big they dwarf an entire individual race’s liqudity.

Despite the amount of syndicates and smart money in the market, there is even more mug money to match. As a consequence, you can routinely expect inflated prices, over reactions, big blips and wildly inaccurate prices due to either asymetric information or lack of information in many cases. Since mug money is more abundant, there is more for the taking without being anywhere near as shrewd as a race trader.

Depending on your time horizon, appetite for risk and bank roll, there is opportunity for every type of trader to make far bigger profits, or even regular profits. The liquidity and fill rate ensure that scalability is possible and the ability to get in and out at a fair price is easy.

My niches mean that whilst I’m not the best trader in the world, I don’t need to be. My hybrid approach to figuring out what works for me means that I’m able to make high 4 figure profits almost monthly with minimal stress. The colossal liquidity means I’m able to scale my results into unchartered territory in the near future (some traders make multiple 5 and yes, 6 figures months!).

Whilst racing has been decimated, cricket is only getting bigger. Every franchise and format has it’s own set of unique intricacies that benefit everyone’s profile. Whilst cricket may not be everyone’s passion, it doesn’t need to be. Money will quickly compensate your lack of enthusiasm. It’s better to make money than chase a fruitless hobby. Nobody gets bored making money.

I teach race and cricket trading on a 1 to 1 basis. If that interests you, you can message me directly for further information. My premium newsletter readers will however benefit from video tutorials from time to time. Next one will be posted this Sunday! If you’re not a premium member, enjoy a free trial using the following link: https://anymantrading.substack.com/bb5f3a82

Speak soon

AT