The crippling weight of expectations

Rory's predicament drives home an important lesson...

Good evening valued subscriber,

A sketchy weekend in terms of picks last weekend. Canelo failed to get a stoppage against a novice talent out of his depth and Lara knocked out Garcia, a fighter who hasn’t even been dropped let alone stopped in his 17 year campaign as a professional. 2 topsy turvy results that we’ll chalk up to variance.

As for the golf pick, Rory did shorten up aggressively as anticipated, trading as short as 1.2. In true Mcilroy fashion, he made a mountain of a mole hill, fumbling the lead to Hojgaard who was trailing by 4.

Rory narrowly misses an eagle putt on the last to force a play off.

This loss was astonishingly similar to his loss at the 150th Open at St Andrews in 2022 which played out in nearly identical fashion. Rory played spellbinding golf, tee to green as he often does, only to to lose in the exact same manner, trailing by 1 to Cam Smith who was trailing by 4 into the final round.

Whilst both results played out in remarkably similar fashion, it’s important to note that these are also 2 tournaments of great significance to Mcilroy. Being primarily a PGA tour player, Rory makes special effort to travel back to his home country to win his national title. Not to mention the fact that it was hosted at Ireland and arguably the worlds most respected course at Royal County Down. The 150th Open Championship needs no explanation.

Rory is on a 10 year major dry run, despite being in the worlds top 3 players during that time. He is on the verge of eclipsing Tiger’s major dry run between 2008-2019 who battled several injuries, infidielity scandals, divorce, intoxicated run ins with the law and dropped out the worlds top 1000.

Rory Mcilroy is also 1 major away from completing the Grand slam (winning all 4 majors) which only 5 men have every done. The final piece in the jigsaw is the Masters where he infamously melted down in the final round. Barring a few non - competitive runner up finishes, he has not had a sniff at winning it since. Critics, fans, coaches, fellow players and former winners have tipped him to win it. He would be the 1st Irishman to do so. He is the most popular and most marketable golfer in the game.

A strong argument could be made for him being the most prodigious talent ever, more so than Tiger woods. His natural ability is unparalleled. With 4 majors and numerous significant tournaments under his belt, it would be almost blasphemous to write Rory off as an underachiever. But given the weight of expectation (many critics projected he would win double digit majors, some even said he’d eclipse Tiger) I feel like Rory’s career is an example of how crippling the weight of expectations can be.

The weight and pressure of expectation is the biggest wrecking ball when it comes to success. For several years, I had several expectations that I demanded from trading. These expectations led to incorrect emotional responses to well traded sessions that didn’t meet my expected profit target. The erroneous expectation lead to errenous emotional responses which in turn led to erroneous reactions: over trading, over staking and ultimately losing money to chase a target.

Consequently, my results for many years always fell short of my expectations despite overworking and putting in the effort. After journaling and detailing honestly and objectively what, how and why I was doing what I was doing, I came to the realisation that overlaying my rigid expectations onto the process was hindering my success. It caused me to constantly screw up a plan I was otherwise executing rather well.

As an avid golfer myself, I see the similarities with golf and trading and Rory Mcilory’s current predicament drives the point home. This is a man with the world seemingly by the balls (no pun intended!): He is the most skilled player in the world. He is loved and respected by fans and peers alike. He works hard on every facet of his game and his numbers especially in the short game department have improved markedly. But some way, some how, he always manages to fumble a lead at a crucial tournament at a crucial time. He did so at the Memorial last year. Holding the lead into the final round, he carded a woeful 3 over par round to lose by 4.

I was at the Dubai invitational earlier this year where I followed him around during the final round where he was leading deep into the back 9 before a bizarre 3 putt from 6 feet. Despite the hiccup, he was still leading. With 1 hole left, he snap hooks his drive into the water, gifting the title to Tommy Fleetwood.

Later this year at the US Open, he had a golden opportunity to finally get the major monkey off his back. Rory’s putting has been a weakness and was half way towards silencing his critics when he held several clutch putts in the final round, giving himself a 2 shot cushion with 3 holes left to play. By all accounts, he already had one hand on the trophy (He was trading at 1.1 on the exchange!). That was until he missed a 3 foot putt on the 16th and another 4 foot putt on the final hole where Bryson Dechambeu made an epic up and down par save to steal the tournament as Rory watched desperately from the media room. He then stormed off the premises, avoided his media duties and withdrew from the following weeks tournament. ANY other player would have received a rightful shellacking from the press for not honouring press duties but everyone was rather sympathetic to Mcilorys cause, further proving his media protection.

Rory watches on as he gifts Bryson the US Open

The 150th Open championship and the Irish Open only confirm a trend that’s hard to ignore: Rory Mcilroy suffers from the expectation he and everyone has placed on him. He’s still a capable winner and has only gone 2 seasons since turning pro without a win. But his wins as of late are a far cry from the first half of his career. The free swinging, trailblazing victories where he would destroy fields by 9 strokes are no more. Whilst he is a more complete player, the scar tissue from major meltdowns coupled with the weight of expectation have turned him into a gun shy, streaky competitor that goes cold at the worst possible time. His raw ability gets him into contention most weeks. But the manner in which he handles final round pressure is what seperates him from Tiger Woods. It has nothing to do with ability.

What made Tiger so great was his composure at ALL times. No matter what we expected of him, he was able to tune out the noise and zone in when it counts. This is a man who 90% of the gallery was coming to see. This was a man that generated such buzz and attention, he had to be mindful of when to walk and not interrupt playing partners since the entire crowd would move with him. One can only imagine how exhausting that must be. Yet he was still able to exude absolute single minded focus. His application to the sport and ability to execute the process almost flawlessly, consistently over a sustained period was what made him great. Whilst he had patches of untouchable greatness, the longevity and dominance of Tiger had more to do with the fact that he was so damn consistent. Everybody knew what to expect. *A sign of mastery is being predictable*. Tiger understood well, that the game has no emotion. Whether you pluck that ball out the cup for an eagle or double bogey, the game doesn’t know. Whether you’ve won at the same course 10 years in a row or never made the cut, the course does not know. Tiger became a serial winner at every event for many years because he knew how to stay in the zone and pour all his energy into executing the process in the moment, no matter what was happening around him.

The same applies to trading. Nobody knows who is taking the other side of your trade. The market does not know or care who you are. Whether you’re a serial winner, routinely pulling millions in profits or blowing your bank every month, the market does not know or care.

Winning or losing is not personal. It’s just a product of doing the right thing at the right time. The effort and hard work is in grooving an edge. Building a golf swing requires swinging the club through several check points, which requires repetition and iteration until the correct muscle memory is developed. By the time you achieve a certain level of club face and ball flight control, playing good golf becomes effortless. The only brain power required beyond that lies in deciding how and when to execute a certain shot. Good players that play badly often do so because of incorrect decision making which is often caused by misplaced expectations.

Trading is the same. The donkey work lies in finding an edge. Now and again it requires tweaking but executing is effortless. Execution requires patience and the ability to wait for opportunities to present themselves. During my best months, I’m rarely working harder. The extra-ordinary results come from being able to spot and exploit opportunities. Some months there are more chances than others. I can’t control that. I can’t demand a market be made that suits me. It doesn’t matter how hard I work, I cannot produce extra ordinary months consecutively when nothing fits my criteria.

The only thing I can do is leave my expectations at the door. Doing so frees me from the chains of HAVING to do anything. My results took off when I stopped hunting for chances and waited for the chances to come to me. Everything became effortless and my profits finally took off to a range that was well within my realm of possibility.

The prize awaits those who are able to do the right thing at the right time. Consistently. You can only do that when you drop your expectations. Some weeks its all yours, some weeks it isn’t. When it isn’t, it’s never personal. Learn to fold and walk away. In any endeavour, you will be confronted with many opportunities. Don’t screw it up by overlaying your expectations as to how and when it should happen. Just be attentive and take advantage of it when it comes. You don’t need to be right often. Sometimes you’re only 1 or 2 decisions away from that big break…

Speak soon.

AT

*Note*: The in play cricket tutorial was well received last weekend. I may do another one this weekend if the opportunity to do so is available. Perhaps horse racing this time. Speaking of which, the introductory sector to the racing will be posted for race pack members on Sunday. Also contemplating posting back to lay picks on racing. Been experimenting successfully over the last few months so may start sharing.