Profiting from clown world

Even non participants will bear fruit...

Good evening valued subscriber

In light of last night’s circus show, it felt like something had to be said about the spectacle that is ‘influencer boxing’. We live in a day and age where social status is increasingly becoming the new currency. The word ‘shame’ is virtually none existent with Gen Z - women selling their bodies for Instagram and Only fans followers, pranksters engaging in more brazen stunts, men fighting women (conversation for another day!) and Youtubers fighting elderly men.

Do something loud and crazy enough and you’ll generate enough clout/attention which in turn opens a whole pandora’s box of opportunities: brand deals, movie roles, WWE contracts, you name it.

It’s not fair that a 18 year old barista can sell pics of her butt hole and make $10,000 a week. It’s not fair that twitch streamers who play NBA 2k25 daily are getting paid $100,000 a month whilst your average tradesman or 9-5 worker is barely keeping their head above water.

It’s easy to get frustrated and angry at the state affairs but don’t hate the player. Hate the game. The game has always been the same, todays social media age is just another variant of what’s always been true: generate enough traffic and you’ll be paid for it. Whether it’s professional sport, Hollywood, social media or your local steakhouse. If people want to watch what your offering or be seen at your establishment, you will turn attention into cash. It’s business. Regardless of talent. Generating attention and monetising it is a skill in and of itself. Nobody cares how hard you grind or how noble your line of work is. Do people want to see it, engage with it or be apart of it? Where attention goes, money flows.

Take this newsletter. It doesn’t matter how valuable or interesting the written content is if there is no audience. Whilst organic growth is a byproduct of putting out regular and valuable content, I don’t shy away from using social media to tell people that I write weekly. I’ve traded for many years, I’ve failed miserably, more times than I care to remember and came through the mill successfully. Alot of aspiring gamblers and traders will benefit greatly from where I went wrong and will be able to empathise with many parts of my journey. I genuinely believe I have something of value to offer and have no shame in promoting it, even if it is to a few dozen people.

If you are not interested in building a brand or an audience, then there is still ample opportunity to profit from the attention economy…and yes, I’m referring to trading! The influencer boxing phenomena has created a little pandoras box of opportunity for us to exploit.

Boxing is one of the least shrewdly priced sports: most of the liquidity is driven by punters who bet on their favourite fighters. The Mayweather v McGregor fight was the birth of this new crossover breed. The fight took place, barely at the back end of Mayweather’s retirement and at the pinnacle of McGregor’s status. The McGregor hype train was in full force at the time and the general consensus amongst the MMA community was that he would hurt or knockout Floyd.

McGregor was 6.0 to beat the most technically sound boxer in history. Just think about that. Floyd was 1.2 and touched 1.35 in play. Needless to say it was the biggest bet of my life. I broke all my rules to go balls deep on what I felt was the safest play I’ve ever seen (I personally know one trader who had £250,000 liability at one point). Had you listened to the pundits and mma mouthpieces you’d be convinced that McGregor had a real shot [thankfully, I cut through the garb for you :)]

Fast forward a few years and the boxing/mma crossover morphed into an influencer crossover where the likes of Jake & Logan Paul, KSI and a whole slew of social media personalities I’ve never heard of entered the foray. There is even a whole series dedicated to it (misfits on DAZN). And with that, an entirely new demographic entered the liquidity pool, providing ample mug money for us to mop up.

Tommy Fury was the underdog against Jake Paul (Tommy won). Ben Askren (a man who’s never thrown a punch) was the FAVOURITE against Jake Paul (Ben lost spectacularly).

Mike Tyson was as short as 3.10 to beat Jake Paul yesterday. Whilst I can appreciate the non boxing fans confusion as to how one of the most destructive heavyweights in history can be an underdog against a Youtuber, a little digging or even experience will tell you that Mike had no business being in the ring last night.

In boxing you do not just record a loss on your resume. You lose a piece of your physical health. Reflexes, punch resistance, stamina, speed and strength decline rapidly after 40. It was only 10-15 years ago where I would scrap full on with my old man. He’s now 60 and not a shadow of what he was in his 40s, despite being fit and healthy. Mike Tyson has been smoking weed and mushrooms and not been anywhere near a gym since 2005, barring his exhibition match with Roy Jones in 2020. Yet many fans were lulled into believing he could wind back the clock 30 years with an 8 week camp against a 6’1 227lb, heavy handed 27 year old who’s been living and breathing the sport for the last 5 years. Jake is an average fighter. But there is a point where the gulf in skill is offset by youth.

This latest influencer boxing spectacle has proven again, that casual fans will either look at the past with rose tinted glasses or bet on the man they want to win. The casual cannot separate head from heart. Tyson has a cult like following. And nothing would’ve satisfied the millions that tuned in more, than watching a boxing legend iron out the brash, loud mouthed self proclaimed ‘problem child’. If betting on Mike was a vote for what you wanted to happen, then great. It would’ve made a victory all the more sweeter. But the Gen Z money is flowing into unknown territory. Territory that is home for shrewd value spotters.

Millions of pounds were matched last night. Money that gulfed even the biggest box office fights of this era. With spectacular liquidity comes spectacular stupidity and it makes for ripe pickings. After an anticipated fast start from Tyson, he ran out of gas quickly and by round 2 Jake Paul was a plump 1.50. Needless to say, I hammered the price. Another bet which I was keen to take on was for the fight to go the distance. Whilst it would’ve landed, it was only due to the fact that Paul carried Tyson through the 8 rounds, taking his foot off the gas as a mark of respect. Afterall, the backlash would’ve been far more pronounced had he dished out a savage beating on the clearly struggling Tyson. And Paul had every right to. Just look at what Vitor Belfort did to Holyfield.

Clown world has spread it’s tentacles to boxing and with that, an entirely new wave of liquidity we have never seen before, in markets that nobody truly knows how to price up. Whilst opportunities will be infrequent, they will be valuable and for as long as I stick around, I’ll continue to dig for gold and share my previews.

*last night, premium readers were advised the following:

1. Lay Mike Tyson at 4.9 in the ‘method of victory’ market to knockout out Paul

2. Back 2 Lay Mike in the early rounds on the back of a fast start.

3. In-play: Back Jake Paul at 1.50

All 3 trades came in. My picks have been running hot!