Post fight thoughts

Some thoughts from the shock result that transpired on Saturday!

Good evening valued subscriber

Premium subscribers enjoyed landing both back to lay bets advised on the racing. As for the boxing, it was a result that shocked the world as Anthony Joshua was battered pillar to post before being knocked out in round 5. I will be posting my live trading session for the fight in the premium newsletter later this week.

It is hard to argue against Anthony Joshua being the superior fighter to Daniel Dubois: he is the more technically sound puncher, bigger and rangier, more experienced at world level and arguably has more heart.

The overwhelming consensus from media, fans and even fighters was that Anthony Joshua would knockout Dubois in the 1st half of the fight.

Joshua has been in sublime form as of late, his recent form has typified his trademark style: devastating combination punching, rendering opponents unconscious. He has looked like the Anthony Joshua of old under new coach Ben Davis, a form that was seemingly lost under Robert McCracken who failed in his attempt to transform AJ into a technical fighter. Anthony is a physical specimen. Leaning into his physical advantage is what made him champion.

In my weekend preview, my final thoughts were that Anthony Joshua would win. I claimed that backing Joshua at 1.33 would be safe, but to cover the bet by backing Daniel Dubois by KO in the method of victory market, or at least wait for a bigger price in play which I said would be likely. Lo and behold, not only did Joshua drift in price…it never recovered. It was a one way beat down as Daniel Dubois came sprinting out the blocks, landing heavy blows from the first bell.

The beauty about boxing is that unlike any other sport, the odds are largely influenced by mug punters. The mug punters are in turn lead astray by the heavily biased boxing media. The so called aficionados were leaning so heavily into an Anthony Joshua win, Daniel Dubois was completely overlooked. These are the same ‘experts’ who didn’t even entertain the idea of Usyk beating Anthony Joshua let alone Tyson Fury. A ‘good big un’ always beats a good little un’ they kept saying. Embarrassing. The state of boxing media is so hopelessly biased towards the fighter signed to the respective network that they don’t even bother trying to hide it. It’s best to discard punditry in it’s entirety.

The good thing is that it rewards shrewd punters with inflated value. Often. Usyk was the 6/1 underdog against Joshua in their first fight (LOL). He was 4/1 underdog against Fury (I predicted Usyk would win, you can see my preview and live trading session on Youtube). Zhilei Zhang was a 10/1 underdog against Joe Joyce! Home fighters are always extra ordinarily short because the UK dominated boxing media is always biased towards the home fighter.

The issue, especially with heavyweight boxing is that it’s almost an entirely different sport compared to other weight classes. Since there is no weight limit, 50lb weight and 8 inch height discrepancies are common. These are men so big, its hard to get out the way of each others punches and with their strength, it only takes 1 to land and flip a fight on it’s head.

How many times have we seen it? Tyson Fury boxed the ears of Deontay Wilder for 11 rounds until he landed his trade mark right hand, almost knocking Fury unconscious. If not for Fury’s extra ordinary heart, Wilder would still be the bogeyman of the division and we would not be critiquing whether or not he truly ever was a world level fighter.

Dillian Whyte was the overwhelming bookie favourite when he fought an over the hill Alex Povetkin. He controlled the bout from the start and dropped Povetkin twice in the 4th round. He was trading at 1.02 before Povetkin landed a vicious left uppercut from nowhere clean on the chin, knocking out Whyte cold in the next round.

Those who’ve watched boxing long enough will remember when Audley Harrison fought Michael Sprott for the European title. Harrison was being dominated comfortably, suffering an injured shoulder and was down on all 3 judges scorecards. Ringside pundits were cringing at prior discussions of Harrison going on to challenge the Klitschko’s for world titles. In the final round, a one armed Harrison landed a hail mary of a left hand out of nowhere knocking Michael Sprott clean out.

The extra ordinary punching power in no limit heavyweight bouts is what makes the blue ribbon division so exciting yet so unpredictable.

There has to be a clear gulf in class to make a committed bet which makes the likes of backing Tyson Fury and Usyk far easier to bet on: they have the ability to stick and move with fast footwork and lateral movement, something that’s extremely difficult for big men to possess.

For all of Anthony Joshua’s physical prowess, he is a manufactured technician. He has poor ring generalship and cannot dictate the pace of a fight. Daniel Dubois is offensive minded and a fast starter with devastating knockout power. The mainstream prediction was that both fighters would inevitably end up exchanging big shots and it was a question of who landed first.

Whilst I did not think Dubois would win the bout (as did most), for reasons already explained, his victory did not come entirely as a surprise. What was surprising, was the manner by which he won. He destroyed Anthony. AJ had no response to being forced onto the backfoot early. His demeanour was too relaxed, he did not know how to control the range or pace of the bout and was too busy winking and smiling to his corner, shrugging off the onslaught and multiple knockdowns as if it were a slip.

Joshua is 34 years old. He’s fought in wars before where he’s had to pick himself up off the canvas to comeback and win. For a fighter who’s been in the trenches, Joshua did not use his experience to handle adversity in this fight. His chin was in the air, he was upright and impatient. When he finally clipped Dubois in the 5th round, instead of building and tipping momentum back in his favour, he decided to go toe to toe and lost the exchange. It was a beautiful knockout.

The so called media aficionados who went as far as calling the fight a mismatch are now calling for Joshua to retire. I disagree. However you feel about Saturday’s result, nobody creates as much buzz in the heavyweight division as Anthony Joshua. Outside the hype and marketability, his fights are exciting. The poor defence couple with sensational combination punching and knockout power are bound to make for drama. Besides, Anthony did not lose to a slouch. He lost to a dangerous, young hungry British talent. Anthony has a rematch clause and this first fight result could be the spark needed to instigate another iconic British rivalry.

British rivalries add to the element of unpredictability since they rarely go to plan as we’ve so often seen: nobody saw George Groves dominating Carl Froch in the first fight before the controversial stoppage. Nobody gave Tony Bellew a sniff at going toe to toe with David Haye. Not a single soul saw Liam Smith being the first fighter to give Eubank Jr. his first knockout loss. The list goes on.

Fickle fans will not truly appreciate the rise in interest Joshua has solely created in British boxing until he’s gone. Great fighters like Mayweather and Ward were accused of being boring for routine shutout victories. When we get action packed, offensive minded fighters like Anthony Joshua and Amir Khan, their criticised for being chinny.

People will always find something to complain about but we never truly appreciate the good times until their gone. Whatever Joshua chooses, he’s earned his stripes. Let’s pay the man his dues.

AT

*note: my live trading session for the fight will be posted in the premium post later this week. I also have an interview with a trader coming up + another live Q&A at the end of the month!