DOAT Chapter V: Cheltenham in review
Another festival wrapped up...
Good evening valued subscriber,
A hectic 4 days at Cheltenham is now behind us! Another highly profitable week on my account which is becoming more and more coveted every year: Liquidity is down (on paper it was higher this year but that’s likely due to trader volume on short priced favs), attendance is down and the squeeze on punters trying to deposit money will continue to be a vice on what’s one of the landmark events on the racing calendar.
My festival P&L were as follows:
Day 1: +£1.2k
Day 2: -£430.34
Day 3: +£333.41
Day 4: +£837.94
At face value it’s around my usual average but given the factors mentioned it took considerably more effort to do that. I make more money for less effort in other markets but given my racing profits are typically smaller (yet more frequent), it’s always exciting adjusting to the bigger Cheltenham races.
Day 1 was off to a cracking start. Not only did I manage to go on an heater off my own account (pre race and in play) but managed to post 4 out of 5 successful trades to Premium members too. The only trade preventing a clean sweep was Constitution Hill who jumped badly before falling.
Days 2 and 3 were very lean: 1/2 trades landed on Day 2 and 2/3 trades landed on day 3. What was remarkable was the amount of short priced favourites that were routinely gubbed. It was a theme that typified the entire festival. Not even day 4 could buck the trend, culminating in the biggest upset in the Gold Cup with Galopin Des Champs failing to follow up previous efforts, petering out in the home straight: almost £3m of the entire £3.5 matched on the final race was gambled on Galopin Des Champs!
We managed to land 1 out of 1 trades on Day 4 bringing the week total to 8/12 profitable trades landed + a handful of scratched bets. An effort I’m proud of. The pressure of trying to manage my own trades where I’m executing a few strats whilst trying to single out the most probable and valuable bets to a group never gets easier, but the pressure at least keeps me on my toes! I’ve always maintained that posting quality bets infrequently is far superior to posting a barrage of half baked selections.
If you’re in the business of making money, then having the discipline to sit on your hands for long periods, avoid markets and dodge odds on favs is the price to pay. Most can’t do that and the incessant need to have a bet is what props up these useless influencer/tipster/guru types who bet on anything and everything, wave their winning slips and vanish when it goes tits up. After all, they are in the business of gaining engagement, not making you money. No serious punter is sinking pints, running polls and screaming from the stands. Likewise, no one serious about money is following said people. Yet ironically, the loudest tipsters have the most followers! We live in an attention economy: those who shout the loudest and showcase the shiniest veneer of what their supposed lifestyle looks like, is the carrot they dangle to gullible followers who cling to the idea of being one bet away from escaping the matrix. This is a huge market. Believe it or not, these people aren’t nearly as interested in making money as they are in believing in miracles and feeling part of a group of dreamers.
Making money takes effort. The promise of a shortcut is more enticing and people will throw away all kinds of money to chase it. This is your liquidity pool and I go out of my way to siphon as much of it to myself and my group as possible. I don’t grind to not take advantage of opportunities. It’s a brutal zero sum game where most people will lose badly.
I will only ever take up an insignificant portion of what is a colossal market and am happy to share the spoils amongst a group of budding members, who show up frequently and absorb my content. My marketing is similar to my trading. Sober, straightforward and honest. No special effects. Just a relentless commitment to executing the process, cutting the deadweight and showing up daily. The results speak for themselves and I’m happy to compare receipts with any tipster guru!
Cheltenham brings all the worms out the wood work and it was on full display in all its glory this week. Wads of cash, fake betting slips, affiliate marketing, bottles popping in VIP booths and a load of punters doing their nuts lumping on odds on favs. History doesn’t repeat itself. Humans do. And wherever the cameras go, there’ll be a bunch of clowns falling over themselves to get in front of it shilling their ‘tips’.
For all the smiles and winning slips you see on twitter and TV, there’s a 100x more tears and blown banks. Don’t fall for the hype. As exciting is Cheltenham is, 1 good week should not define the year. Not if you’re serious about profiting in this game. What’s done is done and you still have to show up tomorrow, which is never guaranteed.
Speak soon.
AT