Crypto portfolio update

Reviewing my crypto portfolio & advised trades

Good evening valued subscriber

I’ve long maintained that trading is not the end goal. Profitable trading is a powerful tool to scale an income that must finance investments with the goal of being substantial enough to make trading unnecessary.

Drying liquidity in light of affordability checks and potential tax hikes (Monday’s pod will cover this) have made me weary of this industry.

Betting on animals running around a field and men swinging a bat has always felt too good to be true and it just might have been with the way things are going! I have my exit plan in mind. I’m not the spring chicken I once was and whilst my operations have scaled to it’s current highest, my schedule is shorter and more concentrated than ever. When trading is no longer a necessity I look forward to continuing it for the novelty, at least for big events. Until then, it’s full throttle as I pour what I can into crypto. Time to review my portfolio updates in light of recent developments.

ETH:

The Discord group was advised to buy Eth at £1,250 in April. Since then it’s nearly tripled as it currently sits at £3,151.88. I’m still holding with the belief that all time highs are likely to be broken at some point (this is the 3rd retest at the $4k mark).

3rd retest above $4k in the last 18 months. Is it time for new ATH’s?

Just as Bitcoin has been dubbed ‘digital gold’, the marketing push behind ETH now is that it’s the ‘digital oil’ for it’s role in powering decentralized finance and smart contracts. We are over 300% up since our entry and whilst we have an ample cushion to decide on our next move, I don’t want to tempt fate again in case there’s another sharp rejection at the $4k territory!

BTC:

Bitcoin has been range bound for the past month hovering between $111k-$119k. There was a sharp rejection at $124k yesterday which marked a double top pattern that has since triggered cascading high and lows.

Big rejection at $124k has led to lower highs and lower lows.

It’s unclear as to when Bitcoin will re attempt breaking the $124k ceiling which was partially motivated by traders gauging sentiment of the Federal Reserve as there was optimism over interest-rate cuts (lower rates make crypto more attractive than lower yielding investments like bonds).

Reduced rates also tend to weaken the dollar which boosts crypto valuations. Unfortunately, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the government doens’t plan on adding to it’s Bitcoin reserve which is in large part responsible for the short term pull back.

The notion that crypto is disassociated with financial markets and is a runaway safe haven is a myth. The recent pullback proves that macro economic indicators are just as impactful on investor sentiment in crypto currencies as much as it is in stocks.

The game changer behind crypto however is easily forgotten: it’s decentralized, autonomous and private. For as long that remains, the scarcity, utility and privacy will always be attractive to investors.

At this point in time, you are at bigger risk NOT owning crypto.

Closing thoughts/predictions:

ETH will continue to soar towards ATH territory. Whether it breaks this time or the next, it’s bound to happen as the wall of institutional money continues to flow. I’ve long maintained that timing the crypto market is pointless if your goal is long term wealth but by offering intraday commentary and how it’s impacted by macro economic policy, you can at least begin to make sense of some of the short term noise and enter the market with more precision.

The number 1 reason why investors sell up when the prices are moving side ways is because they have no idea what’s happening. The fact is, you’re investments are going to trade below their all time high, 99% of the time. If you’re expecting exponential, linear growth month on month then you don’t understand investing. The impatient, short term oriented sellers will be liquidity for those playing the long game. That’s how the market has always operated and will continue to do so.

The markets reward patience.

As for BTC, at this point retail has been priced out: People can no longer afford a whole bitcoin with their end of month savings and the herd consensus is that if it’s ‘too big in price, it can’t really move up’.

Whilst institutions are now the needle mover, I still believe a 10x from here is still possible. The trick to investing is viewing an entry as buying future money: ‘If I buy $1,000 of BTC today, I’m actually buying $10,000 of future money’.

Given the tightened macro economic indicators, I personally think BTC will continue to be range bound by the year end and would be surprised if there’s a sustained move through it’s ATH. This is good news for me since I need as much of my trading bank roll for the upcoming Ashes!

Current trades: