Boxing & MMA: Which is easier to bet on?
In this post I take a deep dive on which sport is easier to bet on. Hint: it has nothing to do with fighting!
So today I want to talk about MMA and boxing and which is the harder of the 2 to bet on. I’ve been betting on both for a while now and I’ve noticed a distinct difference in the 2 sports so if you’re a fan of combat sports, you’ll probably be interested in my thoughts.
The biggest and most obvious difference in boxing and MMA is the rules (obviously). Boxing is just punching. UFC is not just punching and kicking but every fighting style is allowed and there’s so many variations.
When it comes to striking, styles vary from muay thai, kickboxing, karate, tai kwon do and even kung fu. So there’s many variations in stance, guard and even weight distribution.
When it comes to grappling, again there’s many different styles from wrestling to judo, to jiu jitsu to combat sambo where your either pinning or submitting your opponent.
MMA fighters typically come from a discipline specialising in only one fighting style so the aim is to be as complete as possible, mastering ground game with striking.
And in that respect, MMA is a more complete examination of a fighters tool set. They are essentially a jack of all trades, but a specialist in one. The goal in mixed martial arts is to figure out your opponents strengths and target their weakest discipline.
An accomplished wrestler matched up against an accomplished striker will look to nullify his opponents strengths by taking him to the ground. Take Tyron Woodley for example, when he fought Stephen Wonderboy Thompson. Woodley at the time was the most elite wrestler in the welterweight division. Thompson was the most elite striker, coming from a karate, kickboxing background.
Woodley won 2 close decisions by taking him down and using his weight and strength to pin and bully him on the ground. The longer the fight wore on standing up, the longer the fight tipped in Thompsons favor.
Or take Francis Ngannou when he fought Ciryl Gane. Now this was a much harder fight to predict since both are elite strikers, Gane being the more technically sound, but Ngannou being the more destructive power wise. After 2 rounds when Ngannou realised that he could not out strike Gane, he decided to shoot for the takedown, where both fighters in fact showed their inexperience. Ngannou got the better of him in the end, but this played right into the hands of Jon Jones, an elite wrestler who was able to exploit Gane’s weak ground game by wrestling him and submitting in a few minutes into the fight despite a 3 year lay off.
The odds were very close in the build up to the fight, with Jon Jones being the slight favourite, despite a 3 year lay off, because of his superior wrestling. Gane would’ve been the likely favourite had he not fought Ngannou where his weak wrestling was exposed.
The goal of MMA is simply to weigh up the respective fighters prowess in their styles, look at the resume of fighters and how they’ve handled different styles then price them up accordingly.
When you’ve watched enough fights, you begin to notice patterns and over the years, under MMA rules, wrestlers and jiu jitsu practitioners have proven to be the most effective style of fighting in the UFC. Fighters from those background have captured the most titles in recent years.
Now whilst this sounds formulaic and easy, what makes MMA notoriously difficult to bet on, is the sports penchant for surprises. A wrestler can be dominating a fight until 1 punch or kick changes the course of fight in its entirety! Take Kamaru Usman v Leon Edwards as an example. Kamaru dominated the fight for 4 rounds, until Leon feinted a left hand, tricking Usman into leaning right into a shin clashing high left head kick that rendered him unconscious.
Take Meisha Tate, the submission wrestler who was getting beaten pillar to post by Holly Holm a kickboxer and former boxing world champion, before a 5th round rear naked choke out of nowhere.
Or take Jorge Masvidal, who scored the fastest knockout in UFC history with a flying knee to the face on Ben Askren, 5 seconds in the fight. Askren was the former NCAA division 1 champion and ONE champion who was expected to dominate and outwrestle Jorge, who by the way was beaten comfortably in later fights by wrestlers.
What further makes MMA harder to bet on that Boxing, is the business side of the sport. MMA has several organisations, the biggest being the UFC who arguably have the best roster of fighters on the planet.
In the UFC, there is nowhere to hide. The best face the best routinely in each division. When you become champion, you have no choice but to face your mandatory. When Dana says your up next, you either take the fight or lose your title.
The only variable in contract negotiations is the purse of the fighters which rightly reflects who’s putting the most bums in seats. When it comes to glove size, shorts, ring size, weight, there is no advantage granted to the champion or the challenger. All is fair game. In other words, no fighter is bigger than the sport. Other than your purse, no tangible advantage is granted to either fight (location to an extent, but again this is usually a reflection of PPV numbers). UFC is the brand. NOT the fighter.
This is not the case with boxing where the BOXER is the brand. What makes boxing easier to bet on is that rarely is any fight fair game. Since the BOXER is the brand, high profile fighters or some world champions are able to dictate most terms in contract negotiations ie ring size, glove size, glove material, weight, hydration etc.
Even a supposedly evenly matched fight between two skilled fighters is usually rigged in favour of the more popular fighter. There are countless examples to give but I’ll choose a select few: Floyd Mayweather, did not fight outside Las Vegas for the last 11 years of his career where he has a good reputation with the local governing bodies. Since he’s the main PPV draw, there’s no wiggle room for his opponents in contract negotiations. Consequently, he’s able to dictate all contractual terms in his favour. This is why even when he fights elite level opposition, he was always extra ordinarily short in price. When he fought Canelo Alvarez, who was the younger, bigger more powerful fighter at the time, he was able to nullify most of his opponents advantages by forcing Canelo to fight at a catchweight (unofficial weight class) in order to drain Canelo below his natural weight.
Most recently, when Ryan Garcia fought Gervonta Davis, Ryan being the B side in negotiations was forced to fight at a catchweight and even installed a rehydration clause limit on Garcia so he could not gain more than 10lb on fight night so he was not at full strength. Gervonta being Floyd Mayweather’s protégé, is cleared well trained in the art of war.
One of the more shocking examples that I think I’ve ever seen in the sport of boxing was when Manny Pacquiao challenged Keith Thurman who was a feared world champion at the time. When it was revealed that the anti doping bodies would no longer be testing Pacquiao he went from 4/1 outsider, to favourite before the fight. It was as far as I remember, the biggest move I’ve ever seen pre fight in a bout!
I haven’t even mentioned the judging and refereeing which often heavily favours the home fighters. By now it’s obvious that judging is heavily swayed by the crowd reaction and is inevitably subject to human error, so when we have a man’s livelihood and career hinging on inept or influenced judging, it makes the sport potentially even easier to bet on.
Professional boxing at its core, is an extremely difficult sport from a fighting stand point. Just because MMA deals with many different practises, within the narrow niche of boxing there are many variations in style from high guard to the Philly shell, shoulder roll, low hands, southpaw, orthodox, counter punching and brawling. It’s a sport that not only relies on elite stamina, punching resistance and skill, but it’s a game of chess, figuring out an opponent’s rhythm and range, finding openings, timing counters and sequences and absorbing hits to the head and body for 12 rounds on your feet.
If the best boxers in the world fell under one umbrella, with fixed rules, ring size, gloves and weight, I have no doubt that the best fighters in the world would have much sketchier records like their MMA counterparts or like old school boxers back in the day, where there where less prima donnas, and less competing networks and promoters all looking to protect their cash cows from taking a loss.
Skills and resume aside, the negotiation rigging, hometown advantage, promoter and network advantage are what you should really pay attention to when it comes to pricing up fights. This is why you tend to get shorter, albeit more accurate odds in boxing.
The clash of fighting styles and homogenous rule sets is what makes MMA more evenly matched and consequently harder to bet on in my opinion. So that’s why you tend to get bigger odds and it’s why you should be more selective with your bets and even lower your stakes which is what I recommend students and subscribers to do.
But that’s my 2 cents…which has rather served me well till now! Let me know your thoughts. In my premium letter this week I’ll be showcasing some tier I scalping methods I deploy on cricket matches regularly so make sure to upgrade to premium if you enjoy that sort of material 😊
Speak soon
AT